After years of projecting himself as an independent challenger to both the BJP and regional parties, AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi appears to be recalibrating his Uttar Pradesh strategy. His public appeal for a pre-poll alliance with Opposition parties indicates that the party is attempting to shed its long-standing image of splitting anti-BJP votes, an allegation that has repeatedly dogged it after successive elections. Speaking at a public meeting in Moradabad, Owaisi urged Opposition parties to unite to prevent division of anti-BJP votes and offered immediate talks for a seat-sharing arrangement. The statement is widely seen as an acknowledgment that AIMIM’s solo electoral experiments have failed to translate into seats despite gradual increases in vote share.The party’s Uttar Pradesh president Shaukat Ali cited Bihar as an example, claiming the Opposition ignored AIMIM’s alliance proposal there despite the party winning five Assembly seats. He argued that Uttar Pradesh should avoid repeating what AIMIM describes as the Bihar mistake. The timing of the outreach is politically significant. Uttar Pradesh is witnessing early mobilisation for the 2027 Assembly elections, with the Samajwadi Party positioning itself as the principal challenger to the BJP. AIMIM’s proposal puts the SP in a difficult position. Accepting the offer could invite criticism from sections of non-Muslim voters, while rejecting it may allow AIMIM to accuse the Opposition of dividing minority votes.
Political observers say the move is also driven by AIMIM’s electoral record in Uttar Pradesh. The party contested 38 seats in 2017 but failed to win any, securing just 0.24 per cent of the vote. In 2022, it expanded aggressively, contesting nearly 100 seats and almost doubling its vote share to around 0.49 per cent, yet remained without a single MLA.
Despite the absence of victories, AIMIM emerged as a factor in several closely contested constituencies where its candidates polled more votes than the victory margin between the BJP and the Samajwadi Party. That led to persistent accusations from Opposition parties that AIMIM indirectly benefited the BJP by dividing Muslim votes.Rather than dismissing those allegations as before, Owaisi now appears to be addressing them politically. By offering an alliance, AIMIM is attempting to reposition itself as a contributor to Opposition unity instead of an electoral spoiler. The party has simultaneously intensified its campaign in western Uttar Pradesh, holding meetings in Moradabad, Saharanpur and Bahraich while planning similar events in Kanpur, Azamgarh and Balrampur. These districts have sizeable Muslim populations and are considered crucial to the Samajwadi Party’s electoral arithmetic.The Samajwadi Party has responded cautiously. Party leaders have indicated that any alliance decision would require consultation at the highest level and have pointed to ideological differences. SP spokesperson Abbas Haider said every party has the democratic right to contest elections but maintained that voters distinguish between parties with sustained grassroots presence and those that appear only during elections.Whether the INDIA bloc embraces AIMIM or keeps it at arm’s length, Owaisi has already altered the political conversation. His alliance pitch suggests that the battle for Muslim votes in Uttar Pradesh is entering a new phase, with even parties that once thrived on independent identity now recognising the electoral costs of fragmentation.